More importantly, it has not shifted the national vote towards favoring the “Out” solution. Thirdly, it is also important to note that UKIP has been making these same arguments for years and, while they have fared pretty well in terms of broad vote share, the tactic has not delivered any real electoral success. Given that many in the campaign are committed Conservatives and/or want it to be a cross-party campaign (again to appeal to as many voters as possible), they will be loath to let it become a tool for UKIP to boost their own profile. Secondly, and relatedly, focusing on immigration would play into the hands of UKIP and give the party an opportunity for greater involvement in the “Out” campaign. This is unlikely to appeal to the large swathe of swing voters, and would therefore probably be a bad approach to trying to win the referendum.įocusing on immigration will raise the prospect of closed borders and more protectionism. Firstly, the campaign would risk taking on a protectionist and possibly even xenophobic tone. That said, it should be noted that the “Out” campaign is unlikely to want to make immigration and particularly asylum a centerpiece of its campaign for a number of reasons. Many people have rightly asked: If the EU is not there to deal with these kinds of pan-European challenges then what is it there for? The combination of the situation in Calais, the wide economic malaise and high unemployment rate across the eurozone, the broader crisis across the Mediterranean and the frozen conflict in Ukraine presents an image of an outdated, out-of-touch European Union, inflexible and unable to respond to the huge problems on its doorstep. So could the Calais crisis boost the “Out” camp?Ĭlearly, the crisis at Calais once again depicts Europe as a continent in crisis and the EU as an organization incapable of solving problems. But there is no doubt that the campaigns will also play a big role. That is why it must be as broad and comprehensive as possible. The most important factor in determining how these people will vote will be the substance of Prime Minister David Cameron’s EU reform push.
While some in Britain have already decided how they will vote, there is a substantial body of swing voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of the referendum. They rightly raise the question of whether this will play into the EU referendum that looks increasingly likely to happen in a year or so. this summer and a number of politicians and commentators have been quick to point the finger of blame at the EU. The Calais crisis has dominated headlines in the U.K.
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